Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –1.0% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,047 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use our own college basketball model to evaluate college basketball futures.
Active markets today: College basketball, in both single-day and futures forms.
Single-day college basketball bets: On the season, we’re 140–107–1 and we’re down 6.69 units. We went through a stretch of mostly betting moneyline favorites, so our win–loss record doesn’t line up with our net loss.
College basketball futures: We started these on Friday, February 23rd with 350 units in our portfolio. We had a bad Champ Week, but we’ve got some solid value alive that should start cashing Thursday and Friday.
Georgia @ Ohio State
We don’t think Georgia’s going to win this game, which is always a dangerous place to start when betting an underdog. We’re going with it anyway because we think the market’s overrating the impact of Georgia’s absences, given how often Georgia’s had to adapt to absences and how well they played on Sunday with this combination of active players.
Pick: Georgia +9 (–105). Low confidence.
Cincinnati @ Indiana State
This line has swelled, but we like Indiana State. We think the crowd advantage will be bigger than usual for the Sycamores and that it’s going to be hard for Jizzle James to strike twice in a row. You just don’t often see that with backup point guards thrust into the starting role.
Pick: Indiana State –4 (–105). Low confidence.
NIT
These odds are accounting for Utah likely being the team flying in from the furthest away, geographically, if they even make the NIT Final Four. But they’re a hearty favorite tomorrow night, and there are a lot of elements to home court advantage, many of which Indiana State or Cincinnati will lack if Utah does make that semifinal. We like this value enough to put two units on it. We’ll have a lot more futures over the next two days, more on the NCAA Tournament side of things.
Pick: Utah to win +550. Low confidence. x2
