Editor’s Note: For a little more than three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -4% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 2,284 published picks, not including bets that remain pending, like futures. That is, of course, unprofitable, and while our projections do indicate we’ll get back to even or profitable by the beginning of November (we have a strong history on MLB futures), we want to be transparent with you here.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks.
Yet more college basketball futures today, for which the odds come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline due to the absence of a current/accurate Vegas consensus. First, though:
St. Bonaventure @ Virginia
A thing about this game is that while both teams play slow, neither team is defensively excellent. Virginia has something of that reputation, but a lot of that comes from raw points, which are low because, well, they play slow.
KenPom has this as a 60-possession game, and he still has it reaching 129 points. Get out of here.
Pick: Over 123.5 (-110). Medium confidence.
Vanderbilt @ Xavier
Will Xavier be distracted with the Sean Miller hiring? Yeah, probably. But they didn’t look debilitatingly distracted on Sunday, they’re the better team here, they’re playing at home, and they should get plenty of free throws from Vandy. Which, in turn, should drive up the total.
Pick: Xavier -2.5 (-110). Medium confidence.
Pick: Over 143.5 (-110). Medium confidence.
And now, the futures:
NIT
These are stupid odds. Stupid, stupid odds. These are ridiculously stupid odds, and for that we are grateful.
There’s two possibilities for where we stand entering next week’s Final Four, as far as these teams go. The first is that the winner of this game plays a Texas A&M team in the semifinal with whom they’re roughly equivalent in KenPom. The second is that the winner of this game plays a Wake Forest team in the semifinal against whom they’ll be a KenPom underdog, but only by a point. At this point, all four teams on this side of the bracket outrank, by KenPom, the four teams on the other side of the bracket, and it’s wide enough that it’s not expected to change.
I understand this is a ridiculous number of units. We’re placing 104 units on BYU and 98 on Washington State. Where this leaves us, with our NIT portfolio already being somewhat constrcuted, is a situation where if BYU or Washington State wins, we profit by 928 units, and if they lose, we lose 222 units. It’s not as simple as that, though. Whichever one wins, again, seems likely to be a three or four-point underdog in the market, tops, something against which we should be able to hedge. We’d guess that Wake or A&M will be at maybe +200 in the futures market once the final four is set, and while that’s not going to be good value, we can use it in a hedge, or we can hedge on the moneyline for that individual semifinal (a moneyline where hopefully the market will have come around and we’ll be sitting around -125 or so, or even perhaps -110 or +100). We’ll also know by that point how our NCAAT portfolio’s weekend went, meaning we might not even need to hedge.
Do not bet more than you can afford to lose, and remember that hedging is a very good idea with this come next week if you don’t want to risk the loss. This being the NIT, hedging might not be available, so again: DO NOT BET MORE THAN YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE. That said, these odds are stupid.
Pick: BYU to win +950. Medium confidence.
Pick: BYU to win +950. Medium confidence.
Pick: BYU to win +950. Medium confidence.
Pick: BYU to win +950. Medium confidence.
Pick: BYU to win +950. Medium confidence.
Pick: BYU to win +950. Medium confidence.
Pick: BYU to win +950. Medium confidence.
Pick: BYU to win +950. Medium confidence.
Pick: BYU to win +950. Medium confidence.
Pick: BYU to win +950. Medium confidence.
Pick: BYU to win +950. Medium confidence.
Pick: BYU to win +950. Medium confidence.
Pick: BYU to win +950. Medium confidence.
Pick: BYU to win +950. Medium confidence.
Pick: BYU to win +950. Medium confidence.
Pick: BYU to win +950. Medium confidence.
Pick: BYU to win +950. Medium confidence.
Pick: BYU to win +950. Medium confidence.
Pick: BYU to win +950. Medium confidence.
Pick: BYU to win +950. Medium confidence.
Pick: BYU to win +950. Medium confidence.
Pick: BYU to win +950. Medium confidence.
Pick: BYU to win +950. Medium confidence.
Pick: BYU to win +950. Medium confidence.
Pick: BYU to win +950. Medium confidence.
Pick: BYU to win +950. Medium confidence.
Pick: BYU to win +950. Medium confidence.
Pick: BYU to win +950. Medium confidence.
Pick: BYU to win +950. Medium confidence.
Pick: BYU to win +950. Medium confidence.
Pick: BYU to win +950. Medium confidence.
Pick: BYU to win +950. Medium confidence.
Pick: BYU to win +950. Medium confidence.
Pick: BYU to win +950. Medium confidence.
Pick: BYU to win +950. Medium confidence.
Pick: BYU to win +950. Medium confidence.
Pick: BYU to win +950. Medium confidence.
Pick: BYU to win +950. Medium confidence.
Pick: BYU to win +950. Medium confidence.
Pick: BYU to win +950. Medium confidence.
Pick: BYU to win +950. Medium confidence.
Pick: BYU to win +950. Medium confidence.
Pick: BYU to win +950. Medium confidence.
Pick: BYU to win +950. Medium confidence.
Pick: BYU to win +950. Medium confidence.
Pick: BYU to win +950. Medium confidence.
Pick: BYU to win +950. Medium confidence.
Pick: BYU to win +950. Medium confidence.
Pick: BYU to win +950. Medium confidence.
Pick: BYU to win +950. Medium confidence.
Pick: BYU to win +950. Medium confidence.
Pick: BYU to win +950. Medium confidence.
Pick: Washington State to win +1000. Medium confidence.
Pick: Washington State to win +1000. Medium confidence.
Pick: Washington State to win +1000. Medium confidence.
Pick: Washington State to win +1000. Medium confidence.
Pick: Washington State to win +1000. Medium confidence.
Pick: Washington State to win +1000. Medium confidence.
Pick: Washington State to win +1000. Medium confidence.
Pick: Washington State to win +1000. Medium confidence.
Pick: Washington State to win +1000. Medium confidence.
Pick: Washington State to win +1000. Medium confidence.
Pick: Washington State to win +1000. Medium confidence.
Pick: Washington State to win +1000. Medium confidence.
Pick: Washington State to win +1000. Medium confidence.
Pick: Washington State to win +1000. Medium confidence.
Pick: Washington State to win +1000. Medium confidence.
Pick: Washington State to win +1000. Medium confidence.
Pick: Washington State to win +1000. Medium confidence.
Pick: Washington State to win +1000. Medium confidence.
Pick: Washington State to win +1000. Medium confidence.
Pick: Washington State to win +1000. Medium confidence.
Pick: Washington State to win +1000. Medium confidence.
Pick: Washington State to win +1000. Medium confidence.
Pick: Washington State to win +1000. Medium confidence.
Pick: Washington State to win +1000. Medium confidence.
Pick: Washington State to win +1000. Medium confidence.
Pick: Washington State to win +1000. Medium confidence.
Pick: Washington State to win +1000. Medium confidence.
Pick: Washington State to win +1000. Medium confidence.
Pick: Washington State to win +1000. Medium confidence.
Pick: Washington State to win +1000. Medium confidence.
Pick: Washington State to win +1000. Medium confidence.
Pick: Washington State to win +1000. Medium confidence.
Pick: Washington State to win +1000. Medium confidence.
Pick: Washington State to win +1000. Medium confidence.
Pick: Washington State to win +1000. Medium confidence.
Pick: Washington State to win +1000. Medium confidence.
Pick: Washington State to win +1000. Medium confidence.
Pick: Washington State to win +1000. Medium confidence.
Pick: Washington State to win +1000. Medium confidence.
Pick: Washington State to win +1000. Medium confidence.
Pick: Washington State to win +1000. Medium confidence.
Pick: Washington State to win +1000. Medium confidence.
Pick: Washington State to win +1000. Medium confidence.
Pick: Washington State to win +1000. Medium confidence.
Pick: Washington State to win +1000. Medium confidence.
Pick: Washington State to win +1000. Medium confidence.
Pick: Washington State to win +1000. Medium confidence.
Pick: Washington State to win +1000. Medium confidence.
Pick: Washington State to win +1000. Medium confidence.
