Editor’s Note: For a little more than three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.0% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 2,038 published picks, not including bets that remain pending, like futures. So…dead even. All of that, for dead even.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks.
Not a lot of value on futures out there, but we did find one. The odds for that come from Bovada due to the absence of a current/accurate Vegas consensus. First, though:
Robert Morris @ Youngstown State
The Horizon League is on the slow side, and these teams are in the middle of its pack, but this over probably undersells what Youngstown could do to the Colonials from deep tonight.
Pick: Over 143 (-110). Medium confidence.
Green Bay @ Detroit Mercy
Both of these guys slow it down, but Green Bay can get to the line and Detroit Mercy is legitimately one of the best shooting teams in the country. Little variables that could add to a big result.
Pick: Over 131.5 (-114). Medium confidence.
Horizon League Men’s Basketball Tournament
There are a few other spots that might have value, but the only clearly positive play today in the conference tournament futures market is this one. Youngstown State isn’t much, but given that they missed the Horizon League’s first-round bye, their path shapes up about as well as one could hope. If they get past Robert Morris tonight and both Oakland and Detroit Mercy win (something like 99% likely and 88% likely, respectively), they get the easiest quarterfinal of any of the road teams, and while that’s a relative term, it makes a difference. Once it gets to Indianapolis, this tournament’s going to be a tossup, so if YSU can even just win tonight, we may be able to put in a hedge or two.
Pick: Youngstown State to win +2500. Low confidence.
