Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,750 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,617 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. KenPom is used in making college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL futures picks.
The deal with the college basketball futures portfolio is as follows: We started with 100 units. So far we’re down 1.1. We’re trying to hold 50 in reserve in case we ever want to hedge. We had nothing pending entering today.
NIT
We’ll start with two futures. We like Oregon as the third-best team (per KenPom) in the field with no road games on the docket. We like New Mexico as the seventh-best with only about a 50/50 chance at a road game if they do get themselves to the quarterfinals. This is just a start, but we’re happy with where it’s going. On to the games.
Pick: Oregon to win +1100. Low confidence.
Pick: New Mexico to win +2200. Low confidence.
Texas A&M Corpus Christi vs. Southeast Missouri State
The Islanders are the better team here, and by a good margin. Not sure what’s got this line where it’s at, but we’ll roll with the favorite in the NCAA Tournament opener.
Pick: Texas A&M Corpus Christi -3 (-110). Low confidence.
Hofstra @ Rutgers
I don’t think you can put this many points into the case that Rutgers is going to come out flat. Especially Rutgers. They’ve got fire.
Pick: Rutgers -5.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Yale @ Vanderbilt
I’m curious about the predictivity of ebb and flow patterns in college basketball. Vanderbilt’s been playing their best lately. Does that imply regression? Rare weeknight game for the Bulldogs, but we’ll still take them.
Pick: Yale +3.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Villanova @ Liberty
If Villanova’s really down Whitmore and Moore, this line should have moved more than it has.
Pick: Liberty -4 (-110). Low confidence.
Bradley @ Wisconsin
Wisconsin’s still better than Bradley. Home court is not worth nothing. Home court is not just crowd.
Pick: Wisconsin -3 (-110). Low confidence.
Eastern Washington @ Washington State
These teams are going to shoot a lot of threes. We think they’ll make them.
Pick: Over 147.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Seton Hall @ Colorado
I do not trust Colorado, but that’s why this is gambling. There’s too much working against Seton Hall here.
Pick: Colorado -4 (-110). Low confidence.
