Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.8% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 6,937 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use our own college basketball model to evaluate college basketball futures.
Active markets today: College basketball, in both single-day bets and futures form.
Single-day college basketball bets: On the season, we’re 122–87–1 and we’re down 3.38 units. We went through a stretch of mostly betting moneyline favorites, so our win–loss record doesn’t line up with our net loss.
College basketball futures: We started these on Friday, February 23rd. Our portfolio has 350 units, and it’s looking like we’ll invest roughly 120 of those before conference tournaments are over. We’re increasing our bets to seven units today, and we have a hedge at the bottom against our 200-to-1 Sacramento State future (and our smaller Idaho State and Montana State futures) in the Big Sky Tournament.
Rhode Island vs. Saint Louis
These teams are talented, terrible on defense, coming off wins, and playing with nothing to lose. They also combined to score 185 two weeks ago. We often try to fade the recent result, but this is one we like.
Pick: Over 155.5 (–110). Low confidence.
Boston College vs. Miami (FL)
It’s unclear (to me at least) if Nijel Pack will play, but even if he does, Miami’s overvalued here. Two straight runs of March success is not statistically significant.
Pick: Boston College +2.5 (–110). Low confidence.
America East Playoffs
The River Hawks have had a bad week and a half, but so did Samford, and Samford turned out fine. We like the value on this. The market seems to be viewing Vermont as automatic, and as with Miami, some of those March trends are too small-sample to be justified as anything meaningful. We’ve got New Hampshire at 35-to-1 on the other side of the bracket, but even if they lose, as expected, we should have some upside going into Saturday’s championship.
Pick: UMass-Lowell to win +450. Low confidence.
Southland Conference Tournament
There’s suddenly value on Nicholls, who sits across the bracket from McNeese in the Southland. 25-to-1 is a big number for a team who only needs to win two games and is only a 4.5-point underdog tonight.
Pick: Nicholls to win +2500. Low confidence.
MAAC Tournament
Our model likes the value on both of these, and I think it’s Iona who’s causing that. The winner of this game will play the winner of Fairfield vs. Iona or Manhattan. Fairfield’s fairly likely to win that game, but the eROI on Iona is large and negative, which tracks with the Gaels being good so often over the last couple decades.
Pick: Niagara to win +1800. Low confidence.
Pick: Marist to win +750. Low confidence.
Big 12 Conference Tournament
We love this value on Texas, and we like Texas’s path. Kansas State is not as good as the Longhorns. Iowa State is good and plays great in Kansas City, but the Cyclones aren’t as good as their AP Poll ranking suggests. Baylor is a good team but has a lot of youth in important places. If it gets to Texas vs. Houston, we’ll be more than happy to hedge.
Texas has experience and good guard play, right? Possibly regressing upwards towards its talent?
Pick: Texas to win +2800. Low confidence.
CAA Tournament
We like the value on Stony Brook tonight. Just because favorites won last night doesn’t mean they’re locked into winning again tonight.
Pick: Stony Brook to win +395. Low confidence.
Summit League Tournament
Similar thing here, and while South Dakota State has a crowd advantage in Sioux Falls, this game isn’t in Brookings and Tommy Bruner is going to be gunning.
Pick: Denver to win +385. Low confidence.
**
The following two bets are hedges against our Big Sky Tournament portfolio.
Montana State vs. Sacramento State
Together with this next bet, this leverages our prior Big Sky futures into a situation where we can hedge into profit tomorrow regardless of today’s results, while still preserving some of the big value we’ve picked up on Sacramento State at 200-to-1. Only one unit on this one.
Pick: Montana State to win –230. Low confidence.
Montana vs. Idaho State
Four units on this guy, because hedging out of Idaho State vs. Sacramento State, with an expected Idaho State moneyline around –300, will be easier than hedging out of Montana vs. Sacramento State, with an expected Montana moneyline around –750. Here are the scenarios, through today’s bets, isolated to the Big Sky:
| Semi 1 | Semi 2 | Champ | Net |
| Sacramento State | Montana | Sacramento State | 197.45 |
| Sacramento State | Idaho State | Sacramento State | 192.00 |
| Montana State | Montana | Montana State | 9.89 |
| Montana State | Idaho State | Montana State | 4.43 |
| Montana State | Idaho State | Idaho State | 0.18 |
| Sacramento State | Idaho State | Idaho State | –1.25 |
| Montana State | Montana | Montana | –2.11 |
| Sacramento State | Montana | Montana | –3.55 |
Pick: Montana to win –275. Low confidence. x4
