Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 893 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 6% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is pretty good. More broadly, it’s adequate when compared to conventional annual investments, and instead of taking a year to bring that return, it’s taking between three hours and seven months. In short, Joe’s got a good track record.
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Three picks for tonight, and a future in the SWAC.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from KenPom, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
Hofstra vs. Northeastern—CAA Championship
The story is this: Northeastern and Hofstra have two of the slowest average defensive possession lengths in the country. In terms of adjusted tempo, Northeastern’s on the slower side, while Hofstra’s average. It could be a low-possession game. It should be a low-possession game, at least mildly.
The problem with that story, when applying it to this line, is this: Neither Northeastern nor Hofstra is particularly strong defensively. Both, though, are strong offensively. Northeastern has the eighth-highest effective shooting percentage in the country. Hofstra’s in the top quintile in overall offensive adjusted efficiency. And while the average defensive possession lengths are slow, that has a lot to do with their competition: the CAA was the sixth-slowest conference in the country this season.
It might not be a fast game. But offensively, it should be an efficient one.
Pick: Over 135 (-110). Low confidence.
Gonzaga vs. Saint Mary’s—WCC Championship
Saint Mary’s and Gonzaga will, as they are wont to do, try to get the other to play their pace tonight. By the raw numbers, Saint Mary’s is the sixth-slowest offense in Division I, while Gonzaga’s the seventh-fastest. We don’t know who will win the possession battle, but it’s likely to end somewhere in the middle, and it’s worth noting that somewhere in the middle in this case is a slightly slower game than their two regular season matchups, which were 68 and 70 possessions, respectively.
Even with that, it won’t be much slower, and both those games hit 150 points, a total that should be matched this evening. Neither team is exceptional defensively, while both are exceptional offensively, and though fatigue is real, it’s real on both ends of the floor (also, Gonzaga’s played just one game this tournament and Saint Mary’s got a day off between their first two).
As long as Saint Mary’s doesn’t thoroughly seize control, the over should be fine.
Pick: Over 143.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Niagara vs. Marist—MAAC Tournament, First Round
In their two regular season meetings, Marist beat Niagara by 19 and 22 points, margins amplified when viewed in conjunction with their tempos.
That’s weird.
It’s unusual.
Because Marist is pretty bad.
And while it’s possible Marist “has Niagara’s number,” it’s more likely they just happened to have two good days when Niagara happened to struggle.
Greg Paulus’s Niagara team is nothing special. They might only be a point better than Marist over the number of possessions likely to be played tonight. Still, there’s an advantage to be had with the Purple Eagles.
Pick: Niagara +1.5 (-110). Low confidence.
SWAC Men’s Basketball Tournament Champion
Jackson State has come on strong over the last month and a half. After opening SWAC play 2-4, they won nine of their last twelve, earning themselves a home game tonight in the SWAC Tournament’s first round while going viral thanks to manager-turned-player Thomas “Snacks” Lee.
There’s a lot to like about the Tigers defensively. They force turnovers. They limit good shots. In the national context, they’re nothing noteworthy, but in the SWAC, they’ve got one of the best defenses around.
Offensively, it’s Tristan Jarrett, Jayveous McKinnis, and little else. McKinnis is an efficient scorer down low who makes up for his free-throw line struggles with a sky-high 63.8% field goal percentage inside the arc (he’s 0-for-1 from outside, if you were curious). Jarrett is KenPom’s SWAC player of the year, and while his rates aren’t all that impressive, he has one of the ten or twelve highest usage rates in the country. Jackson State hasn’t lost when he’s posted an above-average offensive rating.
Overall, Jackson State’s a deserved underdog here. They’re lined up to face favorite Prairie View A&M on Saturday, should both win tonight. But while the Tigers are far from a favorite, they’re closer to the league’s top tier than they were even a few weeks ago. They’re capable of winning this, and capable enough to make 10-to-1 odds a good play.
Pick: Jackson State (+1000). Low confidence.
