Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 3,374 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us). Our ETA for having the overall number back profitable is currently November 7th, the likeliest date of a World Series Game 7 and the eve of college basketball season.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Just MLB futures for a while, posted Monday through Friday. For context: The MLB futures portfolio started at the beginning of the season with 520 units, with another 520 in reserve in case we need them for hedging down the line.
ALCS
With this down, our situation with the AL pennant is as follows (net profit/loss, only considering ALCS, not considering World Series and division futures):
- Yankees: -10.0
- Astros: +46.5
- Blue Jays: +21.5
- Red Sox: +12.0
- Rays: -34.0
- Twins: -34.0
- White Sox: -34.0
- Guardians: +58.0
- Angels: -2.0
As things currently stand, then, we’d have two major liabilities (the Rays and, more likely than not, the AL Central champion), one small liability (the Yankees), two teams with small-to-medium upside (the Red Sox and Blue Jays), and one team with high upside (the Astros). We could hedge from this pretty simply. So, as long as there’s value on Houston, we’ll probably keep pounding it, while hoping on the Guardians to pull through for us and looking for more opportunities on everyone else.
Pick: Houston to win +300. Medium confidence.
World Series
The value here is small, but it’s there, and it helps our breadth. To do the same exercise as above, here’s where we come out at the moment with the World Series market:
- New York (AL): -12
- Houston: +29
- New York (NL): +22
- Los Angeles: -60
- San Diego: +48
- Atlanta: +94
- Toronto: +27
- Milwaukee: +20
- Boston: -8
- San Francisco: +38
- St. Louis: -60
- Tampa Bay: -60
- Minnesota: -60
- Philadelphia: +2
- Chicago (AL): -60
- Cleveland: -60
- Anaheim: -2
Our liability is concentrated at the bottom of that list, which goes by FanGraphs’s projected final regular season W-L record. Our value is concentrated towards the top, with the Dodgers our only serious major risk and with our upside on a variety of legitimate contenders.
We’re happy with where we’re at as we get close here to the regular season’s halfway point.
Pick: New York (NL) to win +700. Medium confidence.
