Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.8% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,038 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3.1% across 1,617 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Both markets today.
Single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 51–37–1, we’re up 8.22 units, we’re up 9% (the average line on our winners has been –113). April was great, May was bad, June has been good.
MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. This is circular, because we use FanGraphs probabilities to guide our picks, but if we use FanGraphs probabilities and include today’s plays, our mean expected return on the 750 units based on what we’ve bet so far is 118.34 units, or 11.4%.
Chicago (AL) @ Anaheim
I’m not sure we’ve ever bet on Ohtani as a starter in one of these. I’d have to go check. Either way, there’s value on the Angels tonight, whom I’m not sure the market believes is good. They’re good! Probably won’t make the playoffs, because the top of the AL is deep, but they’re a good team. The White Sox are not a good team. We like that matchup.
Pick: Anaheim to win –161. Low confidence. (Kopech and Ohtani must start.)
NLCS
The Marlins are top value today, sitting four games up on the playoff cut line with just two games to go before the halfway point in the season. They’re young, they’re good, and their odds are long. We like all of that.
Pick: Miami to win +2500. Medium confidence.
World Series
Just read that NLCS blurb again.
Pick: Miami to win +5500. Medium confidence.
