Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -3% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 3,085 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Just MLB futures today. We’ll figure out the next step with our hockey futures portfolio tomorrow. For context: The MLB portfolio started with 520 units, with another 520 in reserve in case we need them for hedging.
NLCS
Running this back from yesterday, getting ourselves a fifth NL team (alongside San Diego, Atlanta, San Francisco, and Philadelphia) with upside in October. We have a small hole on the Brewers, a lingering moonshot on the Marlins, and big holes on the Dodgers and Cardinals. The season is not yet halfway done. We’ll take all that.
Pick: New York to win +400. Medium confidence.
Pick: New York to win +400. Medium confidence.
