Editor’s Note: For about two and a half years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 1.1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,436 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 1.1% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Detroit @ Milwaukee
Eric Lauer has been dazzlingly effective for the Brewers so far, with 22 strikeouts and just three walks over 22 innings of work. His 2.45 ERA is excellent, and perhaps not altogether shocking for a 2.3-fWAR guy for San Diego in 2019.
At the same time, though, his 4.44 xERA and 4.48 ERA are right around his career averages, suggesting the hard contact is still there and just hasn’t been getting through. He might shut down the woeful Tigers lineup tonight. It might not be enough.
Pick: Detroit to win +143. Low confidence.
Texas @ Colorado
Either somebody lowered Coors Field or…
In actuality, this is probably just an overvaluation of Trevor Story’s absence. The runs should come tonight. Might be wrong. Might always be wrong. But this is the most appealing over we’ve seen in quite some time.
Pick: Over 9.5 (-110). Low confidence.
