Editor’s Note: Joe would downplay how successful this is, but over a sample size of 280 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), his picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 3% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high), meaning he’s been good enough to consistently make the people money.
As always, use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose following Joe’s picks. At the same time, though, you’re also responsible for any money you win.
Similarly, if you have a gambling problem, or even think you might have a gambling problem, get help. If you need help getting help, reach out to us via the contact information available on our About page.
Two picks for today’s games.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written.
- Data from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Baseball Savant, Spotrac, and ESPN is often used and/or cited.
- The writeups often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. This is because in general, picks are being made because the numbers I’m using indicate the pick is beyond a certain confidence threshold, and I’m not coming across enough red flags to pass on it.
Anaheim @ Toronto
At times since his debut, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has lived up to the hype. He’s among the league’s top quartile in average exit velocity, hard hit frequency, and a number of other contact-quality-measuring metrics. He has the hardest hit ball this year of any hitter not named Giancarlo Stanton, a screamer of a single against the White Sox in May.
He hasn’t been otherworldly, but he’s been above-average, which is impressive in its own right for a 20-year-old being compared to the best in the world in any field. He hasn’t dominated, no, but he’s a very good player poised to be a great player soon enough. Keep expectations reasonable, but reasonable, in his case, translates to high.
Pick: Toronto to win +115. Low confidence.
Tampa Bay @ New York (AL)
Ryne Stanek is leading the MLB in starts this year, which is a comical anecdote given Stanek averages just over four outs per outing.
As the Rays’ primary opener, Stanek has enjoyed much success, entering tonight’s outing with a 2.45 ERA backed by a 3.13 FIP. And it isn’t just this year in which Stanek has done so well: In 2018, he made 29 “starts” as part of his 59 outings, and he managed a 2.98 ERA with a 3.55 FIP in those.
Stanek, obviously, is not someone who should be compared to other starting pitchers. But at 27 years old, he’s already making a case for his name to be etched in future histories of the sport. Because whether the opener withers into the dust or changes the game of baseball, he’s been the most prominent man to take on the role. And the first prominent anything tends to be remembered, even if only anecdotally.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win +145. Low confidence.
