Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -4% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 2,995 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
There was a DMV trip this morning, so our NHL futures effort will resume tomorrow rather than today, in the interests of everything on this site getting up earlier today. Just baseball again today, and for futures context on that: We started the year with 520 units in our MLB futures portfolio, but we also have another 520 set aside should we need to hedge down the line.
NLCS
Ozzie Albies’s injury hurts Atlanta significantly.
But they’ve been undervalued pretty much all season.
This roster is really, really good, and while the most likely route for them through the NL side of the playoffs is tough (you’d imagine the 2nd place team in the West will take the other 4th or 5th seed, and more likely than not, Atlanta won’t catch the Mets), they should have Albies back by the time we get to that point.
Pick: Atlanta to win +700. Medium confidence.
World Series
Markets are starting to tighten a little on the Astros, so we’ll dig in further on them now while we can. Expect a lot of picks on them so long as these odds hold.
Pick: Houston to win +800. Medium confidence.
