Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,576 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We rely heavily on Nate Silver’s presidential election model for our election futures.
Active markets today: MLB moneylines and futures.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’ve tried a similar approach this year. We’re 95–83–1 so far, down 5.72 units. We’ve mostly been treading water lately, but we haven’t been able to sustain making up significant ground.
MLB futures: We have a great history with these, though the last two years we’ve only made small profits. In both 2019 and 2021, I believe we recorded better than a 50% ROI. In 2020, we lost about 25% of our portfolio. We began this season with 750 units in our portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. We place two medium-confidence bets most weekdays until sometime in September when the scenarios become more specific.
Texas @ Anaheim
We’re going back to the Rangers tonight. We don’t like most of the teams riding better streaks (those teams often outperform the market on Tuesdays), we’re skeptical of the Angels’ mindset right now, and we think Texas will be confident, not only riding a winning streak but playing behind Max Scherzer, who’s been solid in his limited results since returning from the IL.
Pick: Texas to win –175. Low confidence. (Scherzer and Contreras must start.)
World Series
There was already good value on the Twins. They’re a good team on paper, they’re in a good place in the standings, and their early-season swoons combined with the Guardians’ great first half to lull markets into a weird spot. Then, they won yesterday, on a day with very few games, and while it was an expected win, they’re still close enough to some standings inflection points that it was valuable. Markets didn’t really move.
Pick: Minnesota to win +2150. Medium confidence.
ALCS
The second-most valuable option today is…still the Twins. But in the pennant market. We’ll happily split it up.
Pick: Minnesota to win +800. Medium confidence.
