Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 3,377 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us). Our ETA for having the overall number back profitable is currently November 7th, the likeliest date of a World Series Game 7 and the eve of both college basketball season and Election Day.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets (in both sports and politics) and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Just MLB futures today through Friday. For context on these: We started the season with 520 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with another 520 in reserve in case we need them for hedging down the line.
NL West
We’re tripling up today, instead of doubling up, so we’ll plan on just placing one bet tomorrow rather than two (or, we’ll triple up on this again and take a day off somewhere down the line). There’s value on the Dodgers. That hasn’t been available before. We’re grabbing it, and with that we’re moving our second-worst-case scenario with the division futures (the one where the White Sox, Dodgers, Mets, and Brewers all win the still-competitive divisions) up to 4.5% profitable on what we’ve invested. We still have one realistic susceptibility (the one where the White Sox, Dodgers, Mets, and Cardinals all win the still-competitive divisions), but that one is 1) only set for an 11% loss right now on what we’ve invested and 2) very unlikely to fully materialize.
Pick: Los Angeles to win -350. Medium confidence.
Pick: Los Angeles to win -350. Medium confidence.
Pick: Los Angeles to win -350. Medium confidence.
