Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2.0% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,625 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.6% across 2,293 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We rely heavily on Nate Silver’s presidential election model for our election futures.
Active markets today: MLB moneylines and futures.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’ve tried a similar approach this year. We’re 107–93–3 so far, down 8.23 units. We’ve gotten within reach of profitability a few times this year, but we haven’t been able to sustain a surge.
MLB futures: We have a great history with these, though the last two years we’ve only made small profits. In both 2019 and 2021, I believe we recorded better than a 50% ROI. In 2020, we lost about 25% of our portfolio. We began this season with 750 units in our portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. We place two medium-confidence bets most weekdays until sometime in September when the scenarios become more specific.
Cleveland @ Detroit
On paper, this is a good matchup for the Tigers, especially when you look at the quality of contact Gavin Williams has been allowing. But because of the timing of this game, there is a very good chance Jack Flaherty is traded during the nine innings of play. Flaherty isn’t pitching in the game or anything, but that’s a big distraction. We’re getting the team with the second-best record in baseball against a seller on the deadline afternoon. We’re getting them at –130. We have to take it.
Pick: Cleveland to win –130. Low confidence. (Williams and Holton must start.)
Kansas City @ Chicago (AL)
On paper, this is another bad bet. The Royals’ four best relievers would ideally be unavailable to them, with heavy usage last night stacking on top of injury concerns to leave the bullpen perilously thin. Even Michael Lorenzen, a great relief option on a night like tonight, is likely unavailable after pitching four innings in his last Rangers appearance on Sunday.
Still, it’s hard not to like Kansas City in this one. The White Sox are liable to sell more assets today, and in the event they don’t, that could paradoxically make the mentals even worse, with players like Paul DeJong disappointed after speaking openly for months about their expectation to be traded. Teams don’t lose 15 games in a row by accident. There is something unmeasurably wrong with this White Sox team. On deadline day, that makes them an especially easy target.
Pick: Kansas City to win –189. Low confidence. (Wacha and Cannon must start.)
World Series
We’re back on the Yankees to win it all today, with the Yankees picking up a meaningful half a game on the Orioles (and more in their comparative projected end of season W–L records, given the Orioles enjoyed higher win probabilities in yesterday’s games).
I’m very surprised these odds are available. It seems to me the Yankees are signaling that they’re going to do what it takes to improve their rotation in a meaningful way, and while this is the kind of thing that usually doesn’t make a huge impact, it’s the kind of thing futures markets are prone to overvaluing.
What to make of that? One way to slice it would be to say that futures markets are overvaluing it already, and that they’re really undervaluing the Yankees. Another would be to say that futures markets are going to swing on these guys once they do land Jack Flaherty or someone similar, and that we should bet these odds while we can get them.
Four units.
Pick: New York (AL) to win +700. Medium confidence. x2
