Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,562 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We rely heavily on Nate Silver’s presidential election model for our election futures.
Active markets today: MLB moneylines and futures.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’ve tried a similar approach this year. We’re 89–76 so far, down 3.62 units. That’s better than flipping coins, but it’s not where we want to be. For what it’s worth, we’re coming off a strong week.
MLB futures: We have a great history with these, though the last two years we’ve only made small profits. In both 2019 and 2021, I believe we recorded better than a 50% ROI. In 2020, we lost about 25% of our portfolio. We began this season with 750 units in our portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. We place two medium-confidence bets most weekdays until sometime in September when the scenarios become more specific.
Chicago (AL) @ Cleveland
Chris Flexen hasn’t been good this year, but his performance has been in line with expectations. Carlos Carrasco is harder to trust. At this price, Flexen’s tolerable, and Carrasco presents a nice opportunity.
Pick: Chicago (AL) to win +190. Low confidence. (Flexen and Carrasco must start.)
New York (NL) @ Washington
DJ Herz’s breakout rookie campaign may have just been him getting to pitch against the Marlins early in his career. Sean Manaea is chaotic, but he gets the job done.
Pick: New York (NL) to win –137. Low confidence. (Manaea and Herz must start.)
San Francisco @ Atlanta
Reynaldo López’s contact quality is good, but it’s not as good as all his other stats. That and a fresh Giants bullpen are enough to create some value here.
Pick: San Francisco to win +171. Low confidence. (Birdsong and López must start.)
Milwaukee @ Colorado
This is expensive for the Rockies, but Dallas Keuchel is pitching at Coors Field, and the Brewers might be without Joey Ortiz again. Something’s up there.
Pick: Colorado to win +110. Low confidence. (Keuchel and Feltner must start.)
Arizona @ Los Angeles
Speaking of something being up, Bobby Miller’s numbers are concerning. He’s back from the IL, but he hasn’t been right, and Ryne Nelson—the likeliest bulk reliever, if my impression is correct—has been more stable lately.
Pick: Arizona to win +167. Low confidence. (Mantiply and Miller must start.)
NL East
The value persists on the Phillies, and with this pair of bets, we finally have enough down on them in the NL East that they’d be more than two units profitable for us if the season ended today. It’s been a lot of this bet lately, but we’ll finally be on to higher value or newer value tomorrow.
Pick: Philadelphia to win –325. Medium confidence. x2
