Editor’s Note: Joe would downplay how successful this is, but over a sample size of 315 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), his picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 5% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high), meaning he’s been good enough to consistently make the people money.
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Three picks for today’s games.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Baseball Savant, Spotrac, and ESPN is often used and/or cited.
- The writeups often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. This is because in general, picks are being made because the numbers I’m using indicate the pick is beyond a certain confidence threshold, and I’m not coming across enough red flags to pass on it.
Boston @ Toronto
This season has been a disappointment for the Red Sox, to say the least. And while their current record is not a technical low point, allowing the Yankees to score 29 runs over two games this weekend may have been an emotional low point, even if the scoring conditions were evidently quite offensively favorable.
In a positive development, David Price is pitching tonight for Boston, and among pitchers with 70 or more innings pitched, Price is tied for the MLB’s fourth-best FIP. Long the target of criticism in Boston, Price is following up a stirring playoff performance with his best regular season since coming to New England. Better still, he’s helping hold the Red Sox together, providing stability in the midst of frustration.
Pick: Under 9.5 (+100). Low confidence.
Arizona @ Los Angeles
Alex Verdugo may not be grabbing the same level of attention as Pete Alonso or Fernando Tatís Jr., but he’s right behind the two in WAR, clocking in at 2.3 wins above a replacement outfielder entering tonight.
Verdugo was fine in 86 MLB plate appearances last season, and in his 25 PA’s in 2017 he at least managed to hit one home run. His official rookie year, though, has been sensational. He’s slugged over .500 so far while proving an above-average defensive outfielder.
There’s a well-worn narrative of rookies fading when opposing pitching staffs figure them out—and I have nothing to dispel the credibility of that narrative, nor would I suggest it should be dispelled. But it’s worth considering that in a lineup with one of the three best hitters in the majors, not to mention Max Muncy, Joc Pederson, and Justin Turner, Verdugo is likely not opposing staffs’ top priority right now. Not a bad way to officially enter the league.
Pick: Over 9 (-115). Low confidence.
St. Louis @ Seattle
Jack Flaherty was a very good starting pitcher last season, making 28 starts in which he compiled a 3.34 ERA (backed by a 3.86 FIP—not far off).
2019, however, has not been so kind to the now-sophomore, as he’s issued fewer walks per batter but seen his strikeout rate drop as well, while his ERA has jumped to 4.75.
He’s still above replacement-level, and by a decent margin, but he’s not what the Cardinals were hoping he’d be. And in a division and wild card race that’s aimed to come down to the final days of September, every start could be the difference.
Interestingly, the percentage of pitches Flaherty throws that are balls has stayed very consistent over the two years, right around 37% in each. But whatever change he’s affected isn’t working, as his groundball rate has dropped while opponents’ have converted a higher share of fly balls into home runs—a painful combination. Whether it’s stuff or approach, a return to his 2018 form would be welcome in St. Louis.
Pick: Over 9 (-115). Low confidence.
