Editor’s Note: For almost two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of greatness (the Nationals winning the World Series last year, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the second two months last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 924 published picks, not including futures. And while 6% might not be a great annual return on overall investments, if you strategize well with timing, you can turn daily 6%’s into a whole lot more than 6% over the course of a year.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas Consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. The blurbs aren’t always explanations of the picks—sometimes they are, but often they’re just notes related to the contest, to avoid redundancy. Data and predictions from FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Data from Baseball Savant and ESPN is also often used.
Chicago (AL) @ Cleveland – Doubleheader
I’ve never done the digging necessary to know whether doubleheader results are negatively correlated, but I’ve heard anecdotal suggestions that this is the case.
Whether it is or not, the White Sox have some bats this year, even if Eloy Jiménez ends up missing both games with what’s likely a head injury. As long as they at least split, a profit can be had by taking them in both.
Game 1 Pick: Chicago (AL) to win +120. Low confidence.
Game 2 Pick: Chicago (AL) to win +105. Low confidence.
Colorado @ Texas
Antonio Senzatela was terrible last year, posting a 6.71 ERA across 25 starts. His FIP, though, was only 5.44, and in 2017 and 2018 he managed ERA’s of 4.68 and 4.17 without any noteworthy luck numbers.
Which goes to say: After the A’s expended a lot of bullpen capital to take the last two from the Angels, there’s value to be had with Colorado here.
Pick: Colorado to win +145. Low confidence.
