Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2.0% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,613 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.6% across 2,293 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We rely heavily on Nate Silver’s presidential election model for our election futures.
Active markets today: MLB moneylines and futures.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’ve tried a similar approach this year. We’re 102–87–2 so far, down 5.09 units. We’ve gotten within reach of profitability a few times this year, but we haven’t been able to sustain a surge. This last one has plateaued.
MLB futures: We have a great history with these, though the last two years we’ve only made small profits. In both 2019 and 2021, I believe we recorded better than a 50% ROI. In 2020, we lost about 25% of our portfolio. We began this season with 750 units in our portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. We place two medium-confidence bets most weekdays until sometime in September when the scenarios become more specific.
Arizona @ Kansas City
Jordan Montgomery’s back off the IL, and his challenges this year have been too significant to treat him as last fall’s Jordan Montgomery. Alec Marsh isn’t dominant or anything, but given Montgomery’s uncertainty and where the Royals’ bullpen stands in the rest category, this is a good price. Imagine telling ourselves that in March about Jordan Montgomery facing the Royals.
Pick: Kansas City to win –110. Low confidence. (Montgomery and Marsh must start.)
World Series
Are the Tigers going to trade Tarik Skubal? You can make a strong case for it. For as good as Skubal is, the Tigers could probably get back a comparable amount of talent in the aggregate, and they could get it for a long period of time. Buyers would pay a whole lot for a Cy Young contender.
For the moment, the Tigers’ chances are still too real. I’m sure they’re having discussions, but they’re only a game under .500 entering tonight, and they’re only six games out of playoff position. They still have that advantage we talked about over the All-Star Break, too, where their pre-deadline schedule features only the Guardians and Twins, giving them heightened division leverage in the event they stay hot.
The Rays don’t have a Skubal to consider trading, but they’re a better team who’s also not out of this. The edge of the AL Wild Card picture is tenuous. Both the Red Sox and Mariners came out of the All-Star Break and played poorly.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win +17500. Medium confidence.
Pick: Detroit to win +30000. Medium confidence.
