Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,583 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We rely heavily on Nate Silver’s presidential election model for our election futures.
Active markets today: MLB futures. Moneylines will return on Friday. We might take tomorrow and/or Thursday off. To be determined.
MLB futures: We have a great history with these, though the last two years we’ve only made small profits. In both 2019 and 2021, I believe we recorded better than a 50% ROI. In 2020, we lost about 25% of our portfolio. We began this season with 750 units in our portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. We place two medium-confidence bets most weekdays until sometime in September when the scenarios become more specific.
AL Central
We went this route yesterday, and the fundamentals haven’t changed: The probability is really low and the value is really high. We do have a cap on how much we’ll take on a given team in regular season markets, and just two days of this has the Tigers approaching that cap. In other words, we won’t do this forever. But when the value’s this good, you kind of have to take it. Eventually, one of these sorts of bets does hit. The 2019 Nationals’ odds never got this long, but they’re the classic example here.
Pick: Detroit to win +25000. Medium confidence.
World Series
The Mets didn’t cool off after the end of June. This is the best postseason value we’re seeing today. Again, not a great probability, but that’s why we take the portfolio approach.
Pick: New York (NL) to win +7000. Medium confidence.
