Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.8% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,051 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3.1% across 1,617 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Just futures today. We intend to come back tomorrow for more of these, and on Thursday as well, barring market changes. In other words: No days off the bets this week. We thought we’d do that, but the situation calls for placing bets. We’ll figure out whether to mix those three days off in later in the regular season or just wipe them away, but we’ll figure that out at a later date.
Now, The context and the bets.
MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. This is circular, because we use FanGraphs probabilities to guide our picks, but if we use FanGraphs probabilities and include today’s plays, our mean expected return on the 750 units based on what we’ve bet so far is 112.56 units, or 10.8%.
ALCS
Inexplicably, these odds are still available. We’re in a situation where we’re being given a shot at the Orioles, a team at least 70% likely to make the playoffs, at ALCS odds longer than their World Series odds. This has happened two days in a row. We can’t not take it. There are still three other bets we’d like to make before games begin again on Friday and shake the market around, but we only make two bets a day. If this opportunity is there again tomorrow, we intend to take it again then too.
Pick: Baltimore to win +3500. Medium confidence.
Pick: Baltimore to win +3500. Medium confidence.
