Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 6,665 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low-confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use Movelor heavily to make college football picks. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use FPI heavily to make NFL futures picks, but not spreads and totals.
Active markets today: College basketball. We survived college football season with a small profit somehow.
Single-day college basketball bets: On the season, we’re 32–36. We’re down 5.33 units. We’ve won two in a row after getting hit in the mouth on Saturday.
Seton Hall @ Georgetown
Ed Cooley’s coaching success at Providence was more limited than the Friars’ 2022 win-loss record would have you believe. This isn’t about Ed Cooley. He should end up fine at Georgetown, but only fine, and part of why he should be fine is that he should have pretty good institutional support now that they’ve gone to the trouble of hiring a name as lauded as his.
This is about Seton Hall, who’s been playing great but is ripe for a trap. It’s hard to play three great games in a row, and while the Pirates don’t need to be great tonight, we think even the experience doesn’t save them from overlooking the Hoyas on the road.
The story will be Ed Cooley, if Georgetown does pull this off, but the game will be decided by Seton Hall.
Pick: Georgetown to win +260. Low confidence.
Indiana @ Rutgers
We’d love to parlay this with something, but there’s nothing else we feel all that secure about. Rutgers is hurting. They’re the last Big Ten team without a conference win. But they’ve been consistently competitive, even if they’re not a great team, and they play very good defense. Also, we haven’t seen an actively bad team under Steve Pikiell since 2018. This program has, incredibly, become reliably capable of winning enough games to stay on the edge of the national radar. We think they do that again this year, and we think they get that first conference win tonight.
Pick: Rutgers to win –165. Low confidence.
