Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 783 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 10% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is very good. It’s also good when compared to conventional annual investments, and instead of taking a year to bring that return, it’s taking between three hours and seven months. In short, Joe’s got a good track record.
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Three picks today.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from KenPom, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Team Rankings, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
Providence @ Marquette
Providence, after an atrocious non-conference performance, is 2-0 in conference play and has won three in a row, taking down Texas and Georgetown at home to go with Saturday’s road triumph over DePaul. The Friars, who looked like a potential Big East contender in early November, are doing the little things: forcing turnovers and grabbing offensive rebounds.
Those traits could present a problem tonight for Marquette, who turns the ball over more than they should and struggles on the glass compared to their peers. Still, from strictly an efficiency standpoint (which factors in turnovers, rebounding, and everything else), Marquette’s already five or six points better than their guests even before factoring in home-court advantage. Don’t expect Providence’s Big East unbeaten streak to last.
Pick: Marquette -5.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Western Michigan @ Akron
If you’re someone who likes to grab onto a mid-major early in the season in the hopes of riding them into March (I’m talking emotionally here, but if you’re so driven financially, go for it), Akron might be for you. Loren Cristian Jackson, their 5’8” point guard, is among the nation’s best in true shooting percentage, assist rate, and a handful of other metrics. Xeyrius Williams is a rebounding machine. Tyler Cheese and Channel Banks can shoot. The Zips have handled all of their inferior opponents to date—most of them with ease.
Western Michigan should be the latest in that latter category. The Broncos are expected to finish at the bottom of the MAC, but they did grab a conference victory Saturday, playing their best basketball of the season while beating Ohio at home. They protect the ball well and get to the line, but there isn’t a whole lot else to like about them. Roll Zips.
Pick: Akron -11.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Missouri State @ Illinois State
Missouri State entered the season expected to make significant strides in the Missouri Valley. Whether they do is yet to be determined, but they’ve got a losing record entering tonight, heading to Normal 7-8 overall.
None of those eight losses has come to a team worse, per KenPom, than Little Rock, who beat the Bears by one in Springfield on the season’s opening night. Of course, none of the seven victories has come against a team better, per KenPom, than Evansville, who might be the worst team in the MVC. That game was also in Springfield.
If Evansville isn’t the worst team in the MVC, though, it’s likely Illinois State, result last week against Northern Iowa aside. In that upset, the Redbirds shot 10 of 18 from three. It’s hard to see them repeating that performance against arguably the best perimeter defense in the league.
Pick: Missouri State +2.5 (-110). Low confidence.
