Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,564 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,605 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. KenPom is used in making college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL futures picks.
College hoops and college hoops alone:
Kansas @ Texas Tech
It’s another high-powered night in the Big 12, headlined by this one in Lubbock. Kansas is among the nation’s best teams, by all accounts, and has established themselves as the Big 12 favorites, a great team playing good teams. Texas Tech is one of those good teams, but the Red Raiders are not what we’ve gotten used to them being. The talent is not there at the levels it’s been for the last four or five years, and while the team’s still a headache to play—especially on a loud night at home—without that talent, the results are just a little bit short. Rock Chalk. For tonight, anyway.
Pick: Kansas -1 (-107). Low confidence.
New Mexico @ Fresno State
New Mexico’s at the stage where there’s a target on their back. They’re the last remaining undefeated team in the country, they’re a mid-major ranked in the top 25, it’s a high-excitement time in Albuquerque. But while this could lead to overvaluation in the market—folks high on the Lobos—the opposite seems to be happening here. New Mexico’s a lot better than Fresno State, not because New Mexico’s really all that good (they’ve played only two believable tournament teams, and neither of those is a lock) but because Fresno State is fairly bad. It’s a down year in the San Joaquin Valley. We like UNM to get win number fifteen tonight, and do it going away.
Pick: New Mexico -4 (-110). Low confidence.
