Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 6,774 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use FPI heavily to make NFL futures picks, but not spreads and totals.
Active markets today: Just college basketball. No Super Bowl move(s) yet.
Single-day college basketball bets: On the season, we’re 60–55 and we’re down 9.04 units. We’re currently mostly betting moneyline favorites, so our win–loss record doesn’t line up with our net loss.
Texas Tech @ TCU
TCU’s coming off an exhausting three-overtime win in Waco, and Texas Tech has proven remarkably hard to kill, which we probably should have expected in their first year under Grant McCasland. Still, we haven’t learned our lesson. We’re betting on the home team that’s a moderate kenpom favorite.
Pick: TCU to win –175. Low confidence.
VCU @ St. Bonaventure
We’re less sold on VCU than Bona, and VCU’s had the better results, something we do believe has a tendency of correcting at times in college basketball. Give us the Bonnies.
Pick: St. Bonaventure to win –180. Low confidence.
