Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 822 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 9% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is very good. It’s also good when compared to conventional annual investments, and instead of taking a year to bring that return, it’s taking between three hours and seven months. In short, Joe’s got a good track record.
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Three picks for the evening.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from KenPom, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
Texas A&M @ Tennessee
Lamonte Turner’s announcement that he’d end his season with shoulder surgery looked like it spelled doom for Tennessee, especially after losing by a combined 34 to Wisconsin and LSU in the following games, both in Knoxville. Since then, though, the Vols are 4-2, and while none of their victories have come over even an NIT-caliber opponent, Texas A&M is far from NIT-caliber. On Saturday, Tennessee went to Lawrence, Kansas and hung with one of the best two teams in the country. They’re on the bubble, and the SEC schedule gets harder after tonight, but they’re very much alive.
Part of why Tennessee’s play hasn’t gotten strikingly worse in Turner’s absence (though yes, it has been quite bad a few times) is that Turner was a shadow of himself in the eleven games he did play. His true shooting percentage, above 50% for the whole of his prior college career, was 43%, and while he was distributing the ball well and getting to the line, it just wasn’t enough to outweigh his inability to make baskets. Presumably, the shoulder was the reason, and it’s therefore a good thing Turner’s getting surgery—for himself, and possibly for Tennessee’s offense.
It’s harder to assess the defensive hole Turner leaves, but that’s an area where the Volunteers excel. They’re 21st in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, and they should thoroughly stymie a woeful A&M offense tonight. It’s a big line. Just not big enough.
Pick: Tennessee -9.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Buffalo @ Akron
Akron’s defense has looked suspect on two occasions lately. We talked recently about their performance against Toledo, in which they allowed the Rockets to shoot 15 of 26 on threes in a 1.39 points-per-possession showing. Since then, they’ve also let Ohio go 10 for 22 while scoring 1.30 points per possession.
In between, though, they held Miami (Ohio) to a respectable 0.91 points per possession. And while Buffalo presents a unique challenge in how quickly they get up and down the court and how strong they are on the offensive glass, the Bulls’ poor shooting efficiency results in a rather average projection of just over one point per possession on that side of the scoreboard. Meanwhile, on Akron’s side, Buffalo’s tendency to limit threes does raise concerns, but the Zips can score in more ways than just from deep, and the overall efficiency of Loren Cristian Jackson bodes well for a smooth cover.
Pick: Akron -7.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Ball State @ Bowling Green
Elsewhere in the MAC, Bowling Green is tied for Akron with a 6-1 record for the conference lead, a development that seems to have shifted perceptions regarding the Falcons, especially with Justin Turner returning from injury right around the beginning of league play.
Turner’s a good player, and BGSU deserves credit for their victories. Their conference point differential is just seven points above zero, though, and they’ve beaten only one team with a winning conference record.
Tonight does look like another close game, and it’s possible Bowling Green really is more adept at winning those. With the points, though, it’s too straightforward not to take Ball State.
Pick: Ball State +2.5 (-110). Low confidence.
