Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,620 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,605 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. KenPom is used in making college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL futures picks.
Indiana State @ Drake
Both these teams are strong on the defensive glass and weak on the offensive glass, which implies a choice. That choice might drives down efficiency, but it drives up possession count, and with Indiana State fond of getting out on the break, we see Drake joining them tonight.
Pick: Over 146 (-110). Low confidence.
Kansas State @ Iowa State
We talked about this in the notes today, but there’s reason to believe Kansas State isn’t all that good. Their KenPom ranking is in the 20s, they’re a recent arrival, and they have an unsustainable 4-0 record in overtime. They’ve also played just three conference road games so far. We like our Cyclones tonight.
Pick: Iowa State -5.5 (-107). Low confidence.
