Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 6,696 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use FPI heavily to make NFL futures picks, but not spreads and totals.
Active markets today: Just college basketball.
Single-day college basketball bets: On the season, we’re 49–50. We’re down 10.74 units. We’re up 3.56 units over the last six days, but that is a highly selective sample.
Texas @ Oklahoma
Oklahoma’s coming off a big road win at Cincinnati, but 1) I don’t think players realize how good a win that is right now and 2) I don’t expect them to have any trouble getting up for Texas. Texas got a win on Saturday, but it was painfully difficult. They’re not spiraling, but they’re far from thriving, and I don’t know how much I trust Rodney Terry’s game preparation.
Pick: Oklahoma to win –200. Low confidence.
West Virginia @ UCF
Apologies for another game that’s starting right exactly now (ten minutes from now, but you get the point), but we’re going to resist the temptation to take some less cautious shots and roll with West Virginia continuing to struggle on the road. There are a lot of good options for these types of plays tonight, but we’re trying to hold onto our discipline until we have a better run going. It’s been a good six days, but we want to pick up a little bit more.
Pick: UCF to win –360. Low confidence.
