Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,603 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,605 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. KenPom is used in making college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL futures picks.
Kansas @ Kansas State
Kansas has handled pressure adequately so far this year, and I’m talking about pressure in the emotional sense, not defensive pressure. Between that capability and a Kansas State propensity to turn the ball over, we like the Jayhawks to get out of Manhattan undefeated in Big 12 play. It’s a great game, it’s an emotional game, but KU is the better team.
Pick: Kansas -1.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Florida State @ Notre Dame
Notre Dame has, with the exception of one game against Michigan State, been a horrible basketball team this year. Never before has Mike Brey had a Fighting Irish team finish outside of KenPom’s top 100, but they’re 130th right now, with no reprieve in sight.
Still…Florida State is bad. And Notre Dame has options on offense. We expect an ugly, sad, triumphant night for the home team in South Bend.
Pick: Notre Dame -4.5 (-117). Low confidence.
Texas @ Iowa State
I don’t know if Iowa State’s going to pull it off against Texas tonight, but I do know that the Cyclones scored 77 and 84 in their first two Big 12 home games, and both of those were 68-possession affairs. Tonight’s might be a little slower, but even on the road, Iowa State’s been scoring a point per possession in conference play. With Texas likely to be right around the same total, we see this more in the mid- or high-130’s.
Pick: Over 132 (-110). Low confidence.
