Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 6,683 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use Movelor heavily to make college football picks. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use FPI heavily to make NFL futures picks, but not spreads and totals.
Active markets today: College basketball. We’ll do this week’s NFL futures…later. They’re still in a fine spot, though.
Single-day college basketball bets: On the season, we’re 38–48. We’re down 13.70 units. We’ve been getting crushed.
Georgia @ South Carolina
Both Georgia and South Carolina are off to strong SEC starts, but Georgia’s successes this year have looked a lot more fragile than South Carolina’s. South Carolina is a competitive team who might find its way onto the bubble. Georgia makes a few too many mistakes.
Pick: South Carolina to win –285. Low confidence.
Utah State @ New Mexico
We refuse to respect Utah State (we really think the win streak gets broken soon).
Pick: New Mexico to win –250. Low confidence.
