Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,651 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,607 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. KenPom is used in making college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL futures picks.
Arkansas @ Kentucky
Kentucky’s won six of seven, but have they definitely found the cure for what ails them? One of those wins was the upset of Tennessee in Knoxville, but we’re furthest removed from it of the seven. Beyond that, the Cats have lost to Kansas in Lexington, beaten three teams who’ll probably miss the NIT, and won two home games against bubble teams. That’s not a ringing résumé.
Pick: Arkansas +5.5 (-110). Low confidence.
NC State @ Virginia
This is a big number, but Virginia should get the cover. NC State has a great ceiling, but it accompanies that with a shaky floor, and bettors are probably a little enamored with their 8-1 mark in their last nine.
Pick: Virginia -7 (-110). Low confidence.
