Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 6,790 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use FPI heavily to make NFL futures picks, but not spreads and totals.
Active markets today: Just college basketball. Still no Super Bowl move(s). We aren’t waiting for anything specific we’re just chronically running late.
Single-day college basketball bets: On the season, we’re 72–59 and we’re down 6.08 units. We’re currently mostly betting moneyline favorites, so our win–loss record doesn’t line up with our net loss.
Mississippi @ South Carolina
We weren’t going to pick this one in any form, but then we saw the spread, and it’s too low. The degree of trap game is being overstated against the degree of how much better than Mississippi the Gamecocks are.
Pick: South Carolina –3 (–120). Low confidence.
Clemson @ North Carolina
We weren’t going to pick this one in any form, but then we saw the spread, and it’s too low. The degree of trap game is being overstated against the degree of how much better than Clemson the Tar Heels are.
Pick: North Carolina –6 (–107). Low confidence.
Rutgers @ Maryland
Indiana @ Ohio State
Nevada @ Utah State
Rutgers is always scary, but Maryland is feisty enough and should have their fans in it enough to get this done. Ohio State finally gets another mediocre team at home, and we think they make the most of it. Nevada is skidding, and Utah State has rapidly flipped from over-respected to under-respected. We would have bet these moneylines individually were it not for the Carolina problem above.
Pick: Parlay – Maryland, Ohio State, Utah State to win (+152). Low confidence.
