Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,699 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,607 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. KenPom is used in making college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL futures picks.
Texas A&M @ Mississippi
Mississippi got a win under Win (Win Case, interim head coach). Mississippi beat LSU. Mississippi has also played Auburn to a four-point game and Mississippi State to overtime in its last two losses. For what little this means, Mississippi is playing the best it has since November.
And yet.
It’s hard to view this as a trap game for Texas A&M. One of these teams is searching for a new coach. The other is trying to clinch second place in the SEC and get into the conversation for a top-4 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Motivation matters.
Pick: Texas A&M -5 (-110). Low confidence.
Fresno State @ New Mexico
Fresno State’s had some good games this year, but their biggest accomplishments to date, aside from close losses, are winning at UC Irvine, sweeping UNLV, and beating New Mexico back in Fresno. We expect the Lobos to get revenge for that last one.
Pick: New Mexico -7.5 (-109). Low confidence.
