Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 6,890 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use our own college basketball model to evaluate college basketball futures.
Active markets today: College basketball, in both its single-day and futures forms.
Single-day college basketball bets: On the season, we’re 105–73–1 and we’re down 1.73 units. We’re currently mostly betting moneyline favorites, so our win–loss record doesn’t line up with our net loss.
College basketball futures: We started these on Friday. Our portfolio has 350 units, and it’s looking like we’ll invest roughly 120 of those before conference tournaments are over. We’re currently investing six units per weekday.
Pitt @ Clemson
We don’t love that Clemson’s coming off two wins, but everything else here fits our parameters.
Pick: Clemson to win –320. Low confidence.
Penn State @ Iowa
We don’t love how pricey this is, but even small gains are worth it. We continue to chip away while we know we’re doing something that’s working. We’ve almost eliminated our college basketball deficit.
Pick: Iowa to win –425. Low confidence.
Nevada @ Colorado State
And a similar story here. Three picks tonight. Put ‘em all together if you want a good payout on a cheap bet over a long night.
Pick: Colorado State to win –350. Low confidence.
NCAA Tournament
We really like Auburn’s NCAA Tournament eROI, but we told ourselves we needed to be patient with teams outside the top four in that market, so we’re only taking them as a Final Four team. On that topic: We’re trying to keep as many teams as possible in a place where they alone making the Final Four would make the Final Four section of our portfolio profitable. We don’t know how long we’ll be able to keep it up, and we won’t bet teams with negative eROIs, but we’re adding a unit on Duke and the Auburn bet is a two-unit bet.
We’re also adding Baylor to our Final Four mix, having liked them on Friday and then seeing them play well last night in an NCAA Tournament-like situation (only one day off, playing a good but weird team).
Finally, more on Houston and Arizona. We miscalculated yesterday and accidentally doubled our units when talking about payouts. The current potential payouts in this market for us are: Arizona +22, Houston +17.5, and Purdue +10.5. Plenty more to come.
Pick: Auburn to make Final Four +400. Low confidence. x2
Pick: Duke to make Final Four +550. Low confidence.
Pick: Baylor to make Final Four +1100. Low confidence.
Pick: Houston to win NCAA Tournament +750. Low confidence.
Pick: Arizona to win NCAA Tournament +1400. Low confidence.
