Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,684 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,607 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. KenPom is used in making college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL futures picks.
Villanova @ Xavier
This is the kind of line that makes you think you’re missing something, but aside from Zach Freemantle’s ongoing absence for Xavier, I’m not sure there’s anything to miss? What am I missing? What in the world am I missing?
Someone has to be hurt, but until I see that, this is what we’re going with. Villanova hasn’t beaten a tournament team in nearly eleven months.
Pick: Xavier -4.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Texas Tech @ Oklahoma
I wouldn’t want to face anybody from the Big 12, but I especially wouldn’t want to face these two right now. Not because they’re the best, but because they—and Oklahoma, in particular—are much better than they’re getting credit for being. The Sooners haven’t quit yet, and while everyone watched the Tech rise back towards the bubble, they might not be alone for long in that ascent.
Pick: Oklahoma -2.5 (-110). Low confidence.
