Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.8% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 6,857 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use FPI heavily to make NFL futures picks, but not spreads and totals.
Active markets today: Only college basketball.
Single-day college basketball bets: On the season, we’re 82–65–1 and we’re down 5.55 units. We’re currently mostly betting moneyline favorites, so our win–loss record doesn’t line up with our net loss.
Pitt @ Virginia
Colorado State @ San Diego State
Mississippi @ Kentucky
Oklahoma @ Baylor
We’re going to include these all together, because Pitt/Virginia is tipping off momentarily, but they all either fully or mostly fit the mold we’ve been using: The home team is better. The line is bigger than it is on kenpom. The home team is coming off a loss, while the visitor is coming off a win. We’re parlaying Kentucky and Baylor to keep our daily risk to three units.
Pick: Virginia to win –300. Low confidence.
Pick: San Diego State to win –255. Low confidence.
Pick: Parlay – Kentucky & Baylor to win (–152). Low confidence.
