Editor’s Note: For about two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ NLCS comeback, the second two months of last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,241 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 0.5% might not be enormous, it’s positive over a big sample size. For what it’s worth.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas Consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. The blurbs aren’t always explanations of the picks—sometimes they are, but often they’re just notes related to the contest, to avoid redundancy. Bill Connelly’s SP+ is heavily used in making College Football picks. Ken Pomeroy’s KenPom is heavily used in making College Basketball picks.
Morgan State @ Iona
Don’t buy into Morgan State’s 86-possession exhibition-ish game. The school they played—Lincoln, out of Pennsylvania—has been around the 100’s in their own games. The tempo will be fast, but Iona should keep their guests rather in check.
Pick: Under 148 (-110). Low confidence.
Northern Kentucky @ Dayton
Dayton’s offense has yet to find its groove. Tonight should change that, as they get to play a fairly bad NKU defense. On the other end, expect the Norse to grab a few put-backs to help themselves do their part.
Pick: Over 134 (-110). Low confidence.
Bryant @ St. Francis (NY)
Bryant’s blitzkrieg’s worked so far, but the sample size is small. We don’t fully know what to expect from St. Francis Brooklyn, as this is their opener, but we have a decent idea, and that idea has this game as a tossup.
Pick: St. Francis (NY) +3 (-110). Low confidence.
