Editor’s Note: For three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,885 published picks, not including bets that remain pending, like futures. 2% doesn’t sound amazing, but relative to what else you get on the internet?
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks. ESPN’s SP+ is heavily used in making college football picks of all kinds, and FPI is used in making conference championship futures picks.
Navy @ George Mason
George Mason’s win over Maryland was impressive when it happened, and it’s still impressive now, but the Patriots have plateaued, and while their Thanksgiving week struggles were excusable, the home loss on Saturday to Old Dominion was concerning. Navy’s probably the better team here.
Pick: Navy +5 (-110). Medium confidence.
Brown @ Merrimack
Merrimack is not the better team here, but it’s close enough that, playing at home, they should have the edge. Neither team can score well. Each forces a lot of turnovers. This is going to be ugly.
Pick: Merrimack +2 (-105). Medium confidence.
North Dakota @ California Baptist
Cal Baptist has its flaws, but most of them are on defense. North Dakota has its flaws, and many of them are on defense. The Lancers should have no problem scoring tonight. The Hawks should do enough on their end to get this to three and a half points per minute.
Pick: Over 139 (-110). Medium confidence.
