Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1.6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,451 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.9% across 1,603 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets (in both sports and politics) and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL futures picks.
We’ve got more on our World Cup futures effort, plus today’s college basketball. On the World Cup side, we started the tournament with fifty units in our portfolio. Entering today’s plays, we’ve profited by 6.5 units and have five pending, meaning we have 51.5 in our current bankroll.
2022 World Cup
For today’s games, we have outstanding plays on Switzerland to reach the quarterfinals (+350), Morocco to reach the semifinals (+900), and Spain to win the World Cup (+700), putting us in a position where we clearly want Switzerland to advance but our preference between Spain and Morocco is more vague.
So, with today already covered, we cast our eyes further down the bracket, and this is the best value we’re seeing. France has looked great so far, but so have the English, and we don’t know much, so we may be wrong, but it seems France might get more love from the public because of their success in 2018. That has some bearing here, but it isn’t the only thing.
Pick: England to reach semifinals +118. Low confidence.
North Florida @ Houston
I get it, Houston’s really good and North Florida lets teams run. Still, UNF played Duquesne tight on the road, and UNF gave Washington a little bit of a game, and those things don’t point towards some great upset tonight, but they do indicate a situation where the line should maybe be in the 20’s, not the 30’s.
Pick: North Florida +32 (-105). Low confidence.
Tarleton State @ Baylor
This line appears to be in motion, and I’m not seeing what could be causing that, so hopefully it’s nothing but take it with a grain of salt.
Tarleton’s a better team than you’d expect in its third Division-I season. They also play on the faster side of things, which should give Baylor plenty of opportunities to score. Let’s see some buckets.
Pick: Over 143.5 (-110). Low confidence.
