Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 711 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 11% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is very good. It’s also good when compared to conventional annual investments, and instead of taking a year to bring that return, it’s taking between three hours and seven months. In short, Joe’s got a good track record.
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Three picks today.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from KenPom, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Team Rankings, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
Old Dominion @ William & Mary
Old Dominion is sliding. They’ve dropped four in a row, and with VCU, Illinois, and Richmond their next three opponents, the streak could grow larger if they don’t win tonight in Williamsburg.
The Monarchs’ problem has been an inability to find the bottom of the bucket. They’ve been solid defensively, and their turnover numbers are nothing of which to be ashamed. Their effective shooting percentage is only 45.1%, though, near the nation’s worst quartile.
William & Mary is bad defensively, but more of that comes from an utter inability to force turnovers than anything related to forcing poor shots. Meaning, while Old Dominion gets something of a break tonight, it isn’t as good as it might look.
This game projects to come down to the wire, but given the Tribe are at home, they should probably the narrow favorite.
Pick: William & Mary +2.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Butler @ Mississippi
Just when Mississippi got Blake Hinson back, Luis Rodriguez went down with a foot injury. In his first game out of the lineup, the Rebels mounted a furious comeback to upset Penn State. Two nights later, they lost to Oklahoma State by 41.
Rodriguez wasn’t a prolific scorer: he’s averaged fewer than six points per game. He is, however, one of the better offensive rebounders in the SEC, and his assist and turnover numbers are positive. He’s someone who keeps Mississippi moving on both ends of the court, and it makes sense that they’ve, on the aggregate, struggled in his absence.
Butler certainly has its hands full on the road, but the Bulldogs are better enough overall that picking up the résumé-stuffer should be expected. Take advantage of the spread’s opposing view on that.
Pick: Butler +1.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Austin Peay @ Arkansas
Mason Jones, one of Arkansas’ best offensive players, missed Saturday’s game with a shoulder injury. The Razorbacks struggled to put away Northern Kentucky without him.
Austin Peay, though, is not Northern Kentucky, and while the Governors do have a prolific offense, by low-major standards, predicated on grabbing offensive rebounds and getting to the line, their defense is woeful, and Arkansas is so effective at forcing bad turnovers that Austin Peay may struggle to get shots off at all, let alone second-chance shots.
It isn’t clear whether or not Jones is going to play tonight. If he doesn’t, yes, it might get close to a single-digit game. Arkansas has played one game without him now, though, and they’ve got the pieces to patch that hole. At least against Austin Peay.
Pick: Arkansas -15.5 (-110). Low confidence.
