Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 767 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 11% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is very good. It’s also good when compared to conventional annual investments, and instead of taking a year to bring that return, it’s taking between three hours and seven months. In short, Joe’s got a good track record.
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Two picks today, both in college basketball.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from KenPom, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Team Rankings, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
Miami @ Clemson
For all Clemson’s issues, they do have a competent defense, and one that should dictate a slow tempo this afternoon. They’re underwhelming against the three, though, which should cause them a lot of trouble against Dejan Vasiljevic & Co.
Couple this with Miami’s own relatively weak perimeter defense, and factor in how many three-point attempts Clemson takes, and the total might be surprisingly high today.
Pick: Over 136 (-110). Low confidence.
Butler @ St. John’s
It’s the conference opener for the current Big East favorite (and possible number one seed), and it’s a tricky one, coming against one of the league’s bottom-dwellers on the road. A loss, though understandable, would sting, and would hint that LaVall Jordan’s team, though good, probably isn’t truly a national championship threat.
Besides the outcome, it will be an interesting test stylistically. The Bulldogs were well-tested in non-conference play, but they haven’t played anyone who shares St. John’s insistence on pushing the place. Butler clearly likes to slow things down—the adjusted numbers bear that out. Whether they can successfully slow it down against an offense as hurried as that of their hosts, however, is yet to be known.
The potential for St. John’s to speed things up, the fact that Butler will probably get more second-chance points than they’re accustomed to grabbing, and the sheer low-ness of this total make the over a plausible play, whether Mustapha Heron is good to go for St. John’s or not.
Pick: Over 134.5 (-110). Low confidence.
