Editor’s Note: For three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 1.2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,928 published picks, not including bets that remain pending, like futures. 1.2% doesn’t sound amazing, but relative to what else you get on the internet?
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks. ESPN’s SP+ is heavily used in making college football picks of all kinds, and FPI is used in making conference championship futures picks.
We’ll start with the bowls, then hit college basketball.
Birmingham Bowl: Houston vs. Auburn
As we’ve been saying (and experiencing), this might not be predictive, but Dana Holgorsen’s 2-6 mark in bowls is among the nation’s worst.
Pick: Auburn +1 (-110). Low confidence.
First Responder Bowl: Air Force vs. Louisville
Scott Satterfield’s time at Louisville has been tumultuous, and it may continue to be so. He’s undefeated in bowls, though, dating back to his Appalachian State days.
Pick: Louisville to win -110. Low confidence.
Liberty Bowl: Mississippi State vs. Texas Tech
Few coaches have coached as many bowls as Mike Leach, who’s an even 8-8 over his career and figures to be rather fired up to face his old employer. If the opportunity presents itself to push the gas pedal to the floor, one would assume he’ll take it.
Pick: Mississippi State -10 (-115). Low confidence.
Holiday Bowl: UCLA vs. NC State
Fun fact: This is only Chip Kelly’s fifth career bowl. Another one? All four of the others were BCS bowls. He’s 2-2, Dave Doeren’s 4-3 dating back to his time at NIU.
Pick: NC State -2 (-115). Low confidence.
Guaranteed Rate Bowl: West Virginia vs. Minnesota
Neal Brown has never lost a bowl game.
Pick: West Virginia +5 (-110). Low confidence.
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Incarnate Word @ Texas (men’s basketball)
Texas should thoroughly shut down Incarnate Word’s offense tonight, with a visiting score in the 30’s not off the table. The problem for Longhorn bettors is that Chris Beard’s team doesn’t play fast enough to make it all that likely they’ll push the margin deep into the 30’s. There’s an enormous difference between the two teams in quality, but over 62 possessions, which is what KenPom projects out of this one, that shouldn’t make the final score this wide.
Pick: Incarnate Word +34 (-110). Medium confidence.
