Editor’s Note: For about two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ NLCS comeback, the second two months of last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,262 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 0.2% might not be enormous, it’s positive over a big sample size. For what it’s worth.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas Consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. The blurbs aren’t always explanations of the picks—sometimes they are, but often they’re just notes related to the contest, to avoid redundancy. Bill Connelly’s SP+ is heavily used in making College Football picks. Ken Pomeroy’s KenPom is heavily used in making College Basketball picks.
Same note as the last few days, before we get to the picks themselves: We may be pivoting soon into less frequent published bets, at least for a few months. The results aren’t where they’ve been, and we don’t have a great track record with conference games in college basketball. Since our average ROI is still positive, we’re going to keep going, and we may keep going even if it dips slightly negative, but once conference play heats up, it’s likely we’ll be shifting to trying to build a solid futures portfolio and get that average ROI some breathing room. Anyway, if the bets start disappearing for stretches, that’s why.
Presbyterian @ The Citadel
The Citadel is off to a 6-0 start, having already matched their win total from last year, and while only two of those wins were against Division-I competition, even that’s a step forward after a really bad season last winter. Presbyterian, for its part, also has a winning record, though it’s just 1-1 against D-I foes. Overall, the Blue Hose are just the worse team here, and with the game in Charleston, with The Citadel ready to run (potentially extending any result), and with Presbyterian still adjusting to the departure of Michael Isler—one of last year’s better players—there’s either something we’re missing, or this is a solid play.
Pick: The Citadel -4 (-110). Low confidence.
Georgia Southern @ Florida Gulf Coast
Speaking of things we’re missing, the concern here is that Kaden Archie will come back for Georgia Southern. If you can find information on him, use that information, but from what I can find, Archie exited the Davidson game back on the 11th and hasn’t been on the court since.
In that time, the Eagles have split against D-I foes, losing by two to Mercer at home and beating FIU in two overtimes on the road. KenPom has them somewhere between where they were entering the Davidson loss (a blowout) and exiting the Davidson loss (again, a blowout), which means they’ve played slightly better without Archie than they did with him, something not all that likely to be maintained.
In other words, if Archie’s back, this still might be a good play, and if he’s out, FGCU’s in solid shape.
Pick: Florida Gulf Coast +1 (-110). Low confidence.
