Editor’s Note: For three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 1.4% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,917 published picks, not including bets that remain pending, like futures. 1.4% doesn’t sound amazing, but relative to what else you get on the internet?
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks. ESPN’s SP+ is heavily used in making college football picks of all kinds, and FPI is used in making conference championship futures picks.
We’ll start with the bowls, then get to college basketball at the end.
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Wyoming vs. Kent State
Our attempted strategy of picking teams whose head coaches have the better bowl record continues. Not going great so far: 3-6, 1-2 in games where each head coach has actually coached a bowl (we’re treating a coaching transition as inferior to no bowls, and no bowls as 0-0). But we’ll keep at it, at least for a little bit. Don’t want to flip and then have the results start flipping on us too. Hopefully we’re learning things regardless.
Pick: Kent State +3.5 (-112). Low confidence.
Frisco Bowl: UTSA vs. San Diego State
Brady Hoke’s first bowl since returning to San Diego State. Do you often forget Brady Hoke coaches San Diego State? I often forget Brady Hoke coaches San Diego State.
Pick: San Diego State -3 (-110). Low confidence.
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Michigan State vs. Oakland (men’s college basketball)
Two defense-first teams playing after the finals week break, and there’s still opportunity on the under? This is a little odd, because we’re often betting against the narrative here, but maybe the thought is that Michigan State will want to pound Oakland after having trouble with them fairly often in the past? Even if they want to, locking Oakland down is as good a way to do that as anything.
Pick: Under 145.5 (-110). Medium confidence.
