Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,509 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,605 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL futures picks.
Two bowl games, two college basketball plays:
Eastern Michigan vs. San Jose State
Two relatively long-time coaches, one getting his first career bowl win today. We’re betting on coaches with the worse career bowl record (our experimenting has indicated the reverse may be overvalued by betting markets), so we’re in on the 0-4 guy against the 0-1 guy.
Pick: Eastern Michigan +4.5 (-113). Low confidence.
Liberty vs. Toledo
Josh Aldridge is an interim guy who’s never been a head coach before. Jason Candle is 1-4 career in bowls.
Pick: Toledo -3.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Georgetown @ UConn
Pivoting to basketball: I’m not sure why this line isn’t higher. One reason could be that people just don’t believe how bad Georgetown has gotten and how well UConn is playing right now. If that’s it, I share the sentiment—these things are unbelievable. But we trust the numbers here.
Pick: UConn -21 (-110). Low confidence.
Oklahoma vs. Florida
This could be Milos Uzan’s slightly bum ankle, or it could be the game happening on the border of SEC country. Whatever the cause, the valuation’s off.
Pick: Oklahoma +3.5 (-110). Low confidence.
