Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 743 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 11% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is very good. It’s also good when compared to conventional annual investments, and instead of taking a year to bring that return, it’s taking between three hours and seven months. In short, Joe’s got a good track record.
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Two picks today.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from KenPom, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Team Rankings, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
Central Michigan @ Robert Morris
Central Michigan likes to play fast, especially on the offensive side. Robert Morris likes to slow their opponents down, doing it most on defense. The teams are trending in opposite directions, and while the line on this is close to what it should be, it’s still skewed too far towards CMU. Yes, the Chippewas are the better team, but they’re flawed enough, and Robert Morris is good enough at keeping things low-scoring, that RMU against the spread is one of the better bets available on tonight’s board.
Pick: Robert Morris +5.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Tennessee Tech @ Lipscomb
The last time these two played, just more than three weeks ago, the total landed at 143.
That means little for tonight’s game.
For one thing, Tennessee Tech played one of their most efficient offensive games of the season, adjusting for opponent, and Lipscomb was uncharacteristically easy to score upon.
For another, it’s just one point in the sample.
Lipscomb’s defense, combined with Tennessee Tech’s desire to slow things on the offensive end, should keep the buckets tight tonight in Nashville.
Pick: Under 136.5 (-110). Low confidence.
