Editor’s Note: For about two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ NLCS comeback, the second two months of last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,252 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 0.2% might not be enormous, it’s positive over a big sample size. For what it’s worth.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas Consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. The blurbs aren’t always explanations of the picks—sometimes they are, but often they’re just notes related to the contest, to avoid redundancy. Bill Connelly’s SP+ is heavily used in making College Football picks. Ken Pomeroy’s KenPom is heavily used in making College Basketball picks.
Before the picks, a note: We may be pivoting soon into less frequent published bets, at least for a few months. The results aren’t where they’ve been, and we don’t have a great track record with conference games in college basketball. Since our average ROI is still positive, we’re going to keep going, and we may keep going even if it dips slightly negative, but once conference play heats up, it’s likely we’ll be shifting to trying to build a solid futures portfolio and get that average ROI some breathing room. Anyway, if the bets start disappearing for stretches, that’s why.
Florida Atlantic @ Stetson
While we’ve yet to see Stetson connect on threes (half the Hatters’ field goal attempts come from deep), they’ve also been playing much better defensive teams than FAU. It could be ugly—that’s the way it works when a bad shooting team relies entirely on shooting—but the median projection has this rather close to a tossup. Worth a shot.
Pick: Stetson +4.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Loyola @ Wisconsin
Is America ready for Sister Jean’s second act? We could be getting it shortly. After two down years, Loyola’s back in business, boasting one of the best mid-major teams in the country, a senior-laden crew that’s been shooting the lights out so far while doing the little things well: protecting the defensive glass, limiting opponent free throws, making every possession count. After tune-ups against Chicago State and UIC, they get to try it against the big boys tonight, and while Wisconsin might welcome them to reality, both teams play a slow enough tempo that this could remain within reach for the Ramblers. The moneyline’s there if you’re feeling aggressive. We’ll stick with the spread in here, though.
Pick: Loyola +9 (-110). Low confidence.
