Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,479 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,605 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets (in both sports and politics) and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL futures picks.
We’ve got our World Cup futures action for today, plus college basketball. On the World Cup side, for context: We started with fifty units in our World Cup bankroll. So far, we’ve profited by 17.5 units, and we have one unit pending entering today. That one unit is on Croatia to win the World Cup, and the odds on it are 50-to-1.
2022 World Cup
Could Morocco win this World Cup? Yes, they could. They’re two advancements away. That’s possible for just about any national team, and clearly this one’s better than just any. It is, of course, very unlikely, but they could do it, and their odds present the best value we’re seeing today.
Placing a large hedge against that 50-to-1 bet is tempting, but what does it really do for us today? We’re already profitable on the World Cup as a whole, and heartily so. We’ll hedge a single unit and no more. It’s close enough to positive-value, too, that it’s not the most inefficient long-term approach in the world.
Pick: Morocco to win World Cup +1000. Low confidence.
Pick: Argentina to win World Cup +165. Low confidence. (hedge)
The Citadel @ North Carolina
I can’t say for sure why this line’s spread to where it’s at, but The Citadel has a new coach this year and is no longer playing as up-tempo of ball as they used to (or up-tempo ball at all, really). In theory, that should keep games closer.
Pick: The Citadel +26.5 (-110). Low confidence.
UMBC @ Loyola-Maryland
UMBC’s won four straight, but it’s been against bad competition, and while Loyola-Maryland fits that description, UMBC’s no titan itself. We like Loyola to bounce back from only scoring 34 on Saturday and keep it close.
Pick: Loyola-Maryland +5 (-110). Low confidence.
Chicago State @ Murray State
This is our third college basketball play of the day, and we’ve only been doing two per day so far this season (with nearly dead-even results), so it may be unnecessarily aggressive. It’s too hard to pass up, though. Chicago State against Murray State? Yes, that’s not what it’s meant the last few years, but it’s still a recipe for a blowout. Competence vs. Incompetence.
Pick: Murray State -12 (-110). Low confidence.
