Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 729 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 11% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is very good. It’s also good when compared to conventional annual investments, and instead of taking a year to bring that return, it’s taking between three hours and seven months. In short, Joe’s got a good track record.
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Two picks for tonight.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from KenPom, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Team Rankings, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
Maryland @ Penn State
No, Penn State shouldn’t be expected to allow 1.5 points per possession again, as they did Sunday against Ohio State.
But Maryland also shouldn’t be expected to score fewer than sixty, as they did Saturday against Illinois.
Overall, each team is better defensively than they are offensively, but Maryland’s offensive potency is going to give Penn State real problems. The Nittany Lions’ stingy three-point defense isn’t going to be much help against a scheme predicated on scoring inside. Likewise, Maryland’s going to need to slow down Penn State’s offense, which is operating at a faster clip than it has in all but one year of Pat Chambers’ tenure.
It projects to be a tight one, and it’s possible that will cause one team to slow it down towards the end of the game, but on the aggregate, you have to make a lot of assumptions to talk yourself into not taking the over here.
Pick: Over 141.5 (-105). Low confidence.
Saint Joseph’s @ Temple
Saint Joseph’s has lost seven straight and is missing one of their starting big men. They can’t stop anyone from scoring, and even with their breakneck pace on offense, they haven’t scored more than 71 in almost a month. Temple is one of the best defensive teams they’ve had to deal with, and while the Owls are a little banged up themselves, their injuries are limited to players on the fringes of the rotation. While both teams are from Philadelphia, somewhat discounting Temple’s home court advantage, this line should still be much closer to where it opened, at 15.
Pick: Temple -11 (-110). Low confidence.
