Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 3,388 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us). Our ETA for having the overall number back profitable is currently November 7th, the likeliest date of a World Series Game 7 and the eve of both college basketball season and Election Day.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets (in both sports and politics) and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer picks.
Just MLB futures today. For context: We started the season with 520 units in our MLB futures portfolio, plus another 520 in reserve in case we need to hedge down the line.
We had some choices today. Specifically, we were choosing between batting the ball up a little higher in the AL Central, which helps our division portion’s profit probability, adding new value, adding new value in another place, or flipping a negative World Series route to profitable. In the end, we chose the division side and one of the sources of new value, eschewing the other because we at least have ALCS value on the Rays and we didn’t have any postseason value on the Twins prior to today. Still, we’re keeping an eye on the Mariners’ and Rays’ World Series odds, as well as the Twins’ ALCS odds again for tomorrow. Those are the three we’d have liked to take (or take more on), with our unit pace keeping us from doing so today.
AL Central
Really, we’re in a spot now where we want volatility in the AL Central. The rockier this division’s waters, the more opportunities we have to shore up what’s still looking like a tough loss on the Cardinals (we could have gotten arbitrage on the Cardinals and Brewers today, but we’re in the happy spot of expecting better than a 4% return and the unhappy spot, to peel back the curtain, of not having the cash flow in our accounts to make such a move worthwhile).
Pick: Minnesota to win +145. Medium confidence.
ALCS
Again, here, the Twins. They’re the AL Central favorites, even if it’s only narrowly the case, and that sets them up for what would be an advantageous playoff spot.
Pick: Minnesota to win +2500. Medium confidence.
